THE SATURDAY EXPERIMENT — DRAFT CUP CARDS
Illustrations, not actual horse portraits. Field/source QA pending. Not an issued forecast.

01 SONS AND LOVERS (GB)
Claude's draft view: Needs luck
He's better than the middling spot the model gives him. Few in this field have won a Group race at 2800m or further this year, and he's done it twice. Whether he can do it again under the biggest weight is the whole question.

02 TRUSTYOURINSTINCT (IRE)
Claude's draft view: Needs luck
He's better than his rating, but the draw makes it harder than his form suggests. If he can find a spot in the first half of the field from 18 without being rushed, he's a live outsider.

03 KNIGHT'S CHOICE
Claude's draft view: Hard to see
The model's rating is too harsh, and the reason is a modelling quirk rather than the horse. Even so, I can't build a case from this year's racing. He needs the Herbert Power horse to turn up and the Caulfield horse to stay home.

04 MIDDLE EARTH (GB)
Claude's draft view: Hard to see
The model and I agree here. His Cup record means you can't rule him out completely, but five runs without a placing is a lot of evidence to set aside.

05 VAUBAN (FR)
Claude's draft view: Hard to see
He's nine, second-up after a modest return, and carries 56.5kg from barrier 22. I side with the shadow model on this one.

06 ENFJAAR (IRE)
Claude's draft view: Right in it
His Caulfield run is the best form in the race. Whether he gets 3200m is a fair question, but it's one most of this field has to answer too.

07 ROYAL SUPREMACY (IRE)
Claude's draft view: Hard to see
On his day he's a genuine Group horse. But a wide draw, a long trip and a heavy Caulfield defeat make this about the hardest day he could have picked.

08 WINE DARK SEA (GB)
Claude's draft view: Hard to see
I trust the Caulfield run more than the English ratings. From the second-widest gate he'll need early cover, and plenty of luck to find it.

09 ASTERIX (NZ)
Claude's draft view: Hard to see
He's a tough, honest horse who has earned his place, but his last two runs don't point to a Cup peak. The draw is about the only thing clearly in his favour.

10 GOODIE TWO SHOES (IRE)
Claude's draft view: Needs luck
I'd rate her well above the model, but the Kilternan run and the extra weight are real reasons she may not repeat last year. If that run turns out to be a blip, she's a genuine place threat.

11 JUJA KIBO (IRE)
Claude's draft view: Right in it
He belongs among the main chances. I just don't think he's as far in front as the model makes out.

12 HOPEWELL ROCK (IRE)
Claude's draft view: Right in it
If he handles the trip and the long break, he's the European with the most relevant form. The layoff is a real concern.

13 ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (USA)
Claude's draft view: Hard to see
The form is the better guide, and it says he's a Cup runner rather than a Cup chance.

14 SOUL OF SPAIN (IRE)
Claude's draft view: Needs luck
He's better than his rating and proven at the distance. But a horse who needs a clear run from the back in a 24-horse Cup is relying on more than ability.

15 ZAHRANN (IRE)
Claude's draft view: Needs luck
There could be more to come from a lightly raced horse, and Caulfield was an honest run. But I'd want to see him get 2800m before trusting him over 3200m.

16 SO YOU ARE
Claude's draft view: Right in it
Long campaigns catch up with horses eventually, but this one keeps improving. The weight relief is a big plus.

17 FUTURE HISTORY (GB)
Claude's draft view: Hard to see
He'll be honest. But his best recent runs came against slightly weaker fields than this one, and he was beaten in all of them.

18 JAMES J BRADDOCK (GB)
Claude's draft view: Hard to see
The Derby third is a genuine credential, but it was his high point. The Irish Derby and Kilternan runs, plus the draw, make this a big ask.

19 KIZLYAR (IRE)
Claude's draft view: Needs luck
If the Cup is run at a genuine staying gallop, he'll be doing his best work late while others tire. If it turns into a sprint home, he'll be watching from the pack.

20 POINT OF LAW (GB)
Claude's draft view: Right in it
He's improving, he's effective over a long trip, and he's dropping weight. If the track stays dry, he's my pick of the newcomers.

21 STRICTLY BUSINESS
Claude's draft view: Hard to see
The Oaks win was real, but three heavy defeats this spring leave little reason to expect a turnaround at 3200m.

22 MR MONACO (GB)
Claude's draft view: Needs luck
The weight drop and the Flemington form are real positives. I'd still have him just outside my first five.

23 ZAKOUMA
Claude's draft view: Needs luck
He has proven Flemington staying form at 2800m, and the light weight helps. The mile run makes him hard to rate, so he needs the Herbert Power horse to show up.

24 SHOCKLETZ (NZ)
Claude's draft view: Needs luck
She likes the track, she's in form and she has the weight. Of the roughies, she's the one I think most likely to outrun her number.
