Coffs Harbour · 2026-11-04 · R3
2 Coco Dreaming
Fair confidence · 27.7% model win estimate
Rank 2 #7 Mosgiel Crystal is 27.6% against 27.7%: the race is concentrated among its top three, which is what lifts predictability, but the choice between #2 and #7 is effectively a coin flip. Not chosen: R8 #2 Star Of Winston has the highest Rank 1 probability on the card (33.7%), but R8 ranks lower at step 4 (predictability 0.075). No race on the card reached Strong after R1 (scoping only). Regional exploratory use of v5.2-live r3.2; confidence is not calibrated for this meeting. Soft 7 wet-track caveat applies. Drawn from the main model's frozen numbers; not Dio's separate Cup judgement line.
Chosen 2026-11-04T13:26:27+11:00. Claude selection from the frozen model; regional exploratory research.
Hit — the selected horse won.
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